Will it be all over by tomorrow?

It’s March 4, what some have dubbed “Super Tuesday the Second”. For today is the last major multi-state primary/caucus voting day that will carry as many as 444 delegates (228 from Texas, 161 from Ohio, 32 from Rhode Island and 23 from Vermont) for the Democrats and 265 delegates (TX 140, OH 88, RI 20, VT 17) for the Republicans.

For the Republicans, all but Rhode Island are winner-take-all states, meaning John McCain should be able to secure enough delegates for the Republican nomination by tomorrow, if he’s able to win Texas and Ohio (or Texas and Vermont, or even possibly Ohio and Vermont depending on how many delegates he wins from RI). I’ve included a graphical representation below of the number of delegates each of the two parties’ two front-runners have right now, and John McCain, for the most part, just need the numbers to make it official.

However, as you can see, the Democratic race remains tight, with less than 200 delegates between Sen Barack Obama and Sen Hillary Clinton. Speculation remains high that if Sen Clinton fails to win both Ohio and Texas, she will withdraw from the race. However, I don’t think she’ll give up that easily.

As the Democrats use a proportional representation system for all states, she could yet win enough delegates to remain within touching distance of Sen Obama. (Texas, however, has a very complicated system in which the winner of the popular vote might still fail to win more delegates than the other candidate.) After today, Pennsylvania on April 22 – the next big state – provides 188 delegates and North Carolina on May 6 provides 134, so she might decide to stick it out in the hope she’ll get enough delegates to catch Sen Obama.

However, Sen Clinton does still retain a lead (albeit a slim one) in polls in both Texas and Ohio, so will it be all over by tomorrow? We’ll just have to wait and see.

CNN Democratic Debate in Austin

BBC NEWS | The Reporters | Justin Webb – On plagiarism and humanity

BBC North America editor Justin Webb’s take on Senator Hillary Clinton’s attack on Sen Barack Obama in last night’s CNN Democratic Debate in Austin, Texas. Referring to Sen Obama’s speeches using lines originally made by current Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick, she said something to the effect of “lifting passages of speech… isn’t change you can believe in, it’s change you can Xerox!”

I’m not a big fan of either Sen Clinton or Sen Obama, but I really liked that. Both Justin Webb and, as he says, CNN’s Jeffrey Toobin think it will hurt Sen Clinton that she said that. I’m really hoping Obama supporters wake up and smell the reality that this guy has no real fresh ideas. You make up your own mind – read the comments, both pro- and anti-Obama, both pro- and anti-Clinton on Webb’s blog.

What is hard to disagree, though, was that Sen Clinton made those comments in a state of desperation – she’s now lost ELEVEN straight contests. The results from the Super Tuesday Democratic Global Primary for Democrats Abroad are now in – and Sen Obama has won quite clearly. Justin Webb blogged about this too – apparently, at least, Clinton managed to win the Congo and Liechtenstein.